Sports Betting: Fun vs. Business

Fun

If you read some popular sports betting sites they show absolute disdain for any bettors who like to just bet on their team or go with their gut instinct. To them if you don’t break down everything from the weather conditions to the players personal relationship problems then you’re not well informed enough.

While their is plenty to learn from people who take it that seriously their is also a time to tell them to Fuck Off!

The fact of the matter is putting a few clams down on a game makes it more fun to watch. The first year I bet on sports at all I bet on my home team (The Eagles) every single game no matter what with no regard. Let’s just say that it’s good I excel at on-line poker because my winnings there covered up my losses on games.

Even now as I have gotten more experienced I still always put a few bucks down on the Birds to win no matter what just because I want to. If the line looks bad I’m not going to throw down any B. Franklin’s but a 10 or 20 spot isn’t going to seriously damage my bankroll.

If you’re just getting started in sports betting I recommend you try Bodog. They have the lowest minimum deposit at $20.00 and you can bet as low as $1 or $5 bucks on games where some other sites have $10 or $20 dollar minimums. Of course they are good for bigger bets too and I think they have great customer service.

 

Business

Their is a lot that can be said for treating sports betting like a serious investment/business. If you are disciplined and smart about your bets and money management you can easily make a 25% to 200% ROI in a single season. That crushes what’s considered a good stock market return (10% to 15% annually). A lot of what I know about money management in sports betting comes from my knowledge of on-line poker as the management of risk between the two are very similar. I would say it’s smart to have a minimum of 50 betting units in your bankroll and optimal to have at least 100. This way you can safely ride out the ups and downs without letting your emotions take over and betting too big to try and chase losses.

Personally, I don’t think I would make a great handicapper because so many outside factors go into decisions. I do ok on my gut instinct and base knowledge but I actually prefer to follow along the picks of a proven winner for my main bets. This season I am going with Kevin from NFLBettingpicks.org. He’s done really well this year and is up an incredible  87 betting units between hockey, baseball and now he won his first football bet on the Packers Vs. Saints season opener.

I’m gonna spill the beans here, it’s $85.00 to get Kevin’s picks for the entire NFL season. Some other guys charge $300 or more for the season and others even charge $30.00 per pick and upwards of $150.00 for a couple weeks. Kevin’s picks also have a money back guarantee (not that you’ll need it) so if you start off and don’t like his program you can return it for a full refund. At the very least, you should check out his site HERE as he does give out some of his picks for free.

 

No matter how you decide to treat your sports betting efforts, I hope you crush it this season!!!

 

 

 

About Kate Potter

Kate Potter is a professional sports better and a semi-pro fantasy football player.

NFL Week 16 Betting Lines Preview

Check out the schedule for week 16 of NFL games. We’ll update you with week 16 lines when they become available.

 

 

Sunday, December 22 TIME (EST)  TV Location
Miami Dolphins vs Buffalo Bills 1:00 PM CBS Ralph Wilson Stadium
Minnesota Vikings vs Cincinnati Bengals 1:00 PM FOX Paul Brown Stadium
Indianapolis Colts vs Kansas City Chiefs 1:00 PM CBS Arrowhead Stadium
Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs St. Louis Rams 1:00 PM FOX Edward Jones Dome
Cleveland Browns vs New York Jets 1:00 PM CBS MetLife Stadium
Chicago Bears vs Philadelphia Eagles 1:00 PM FOX Lincoln Financial Field
Dallas Cowboys vs Washington Redskins 1:00 PM FOX FedEx Field
New Orleans Saints vs Carolina Panthers 1:00 PM FOX Bank of America Stadium
Tennessee Titans vs Jacksonville Jaguars 1:00 PM CBS EverBank Field
Denver Broncos vs Houston Texans 1:00 PM CBS Reliant Stadium
Arizona Cardinals vs Seattle Seahawks 4:05 PM FOX CenturyLink Field
New York Giants vs Detroit Lions 4:05 PM FOX Ford Field
Pittsburgh Steelers vs Green Bay Packers 4:25 PM CBS Lambeau Field
Oakland Raiders vs San Diego Chargers 4:25 PM CBS Qualcomm Stadium
New England Patriots vs Baltimore Ravens 8:30 PM NBC M&T Bank Stadium
Monday, December 23 TIME (EST) TV Location
Atlanta Falcons vs San Francisco 49ers 8:30 PM ESPN Candlestick Park

 

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NFL Week 17 Betting Lines Preview

Check out the schedule for week 17 of NFL games. We’ll update you with week 17 lines when they become available.

 

 

Sunday, December 29
TIME (EST) TV Location
Carolina Panthers vs Atlanta Falcons 1:00 PM FOX Georgia Dome
Green Bay Packers vs Chicago Bears 1:00 PM FOX Soldier Field
Baltimore Ravens vs Cincinnati Bengals 1:00 PM CBS Paul Brown Stadium
Philadelphia Eagles vs Dallas Cowboys 1:00 PM FOX AT&T Stadium
Houston Texans vs Tennessee Titans 1:00 PM CBS LP Field
Jacksonville Jaguars vs Indianapolis Colts 1:00 PM CBS Lucas Oil Stadium
Cleveland Browns vs Pittsburgh Steelers 1:00 PM CBS Heinz Field
New York Jets vs Miami Dolphins 1:00 PM CBS Sun Life Stadium
Detroit Lions vs Minnesota Vikings 1:00 PM FOX Mall of America Field
Buffalo Bills vs New England Patriots 1:00 PM CBS Gillette Stadium
Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs New Orleans Saints 1:00 PM FOX Mercedes-Benz Superdome
Washington Redskins vs New York Giants 1:00 PM FOX MetLife Stadium
San Francisco 49ers vs Arizona Cardinals 4:25 PM FOX U of Phoenix Stadium
Kansas City Chiefs vs San Diego Chargers 4:25 PM CBS Qualcomm Stadium
St. Louis Rams vs Seattle Seahawks 4:25 PM FOX CenturyLink Field
Denver Broncos vs Oakland Raiders 4:25 PM CBS O.co Coliseum

 

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NFL Betting Lines Week 2 Preview

NFL Week 2 Lines – Matchup Previews & Point Spreads for Every Game


Buffalo Bills vs. Kansas City Chiefs

The Bills vs. Chiefs matchup begins at 1:00pm EST at Ralph Wilson Stadium, Buffalo’s home field, on CBS. The Bills Chiefs matchup will be an AFC showdown between two teams fighting to prevent starting the season 0-2. The Chiefs Bills spread is at 2.5 or 3 depending on whom you bet with, meaning the Bills are expected to win by more than 2.5 or 3 points.


Cleveland Browns vs. Cincinnati Bengals

The Bengals vs. Browns matchup begins at 1:00 pm EST at Paul Brown Stadium, Cleveland’s home stadium, on CBS. The Bengals Browns matchup will feature a battle for Ohio and for two teams fighting for their first win. Can Browns’ rookies Brandon Weeden and Trent Richardson defeat the Bengals’ sophomores Andy Dalton and AJ Green? Most sportsbooks have the Bengals Browns spread has the Bengals winning by 7 or more points, but if you think it’ll be a closer game, 5 Dimes has the spread at Bengals -3.5.


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Minnesota Vikings vs. Indianapolis Colts

The Colts vs. Vikings matchup starts at 1:00pm EST at Lucas Oil Stadium, home of the Colts, on FOX. Week 1 showed Adrian Peterson is still to be feared, even after injury, as the Vikings picked up their first win. The Colts lost week 1 and will look to rebound in week 2 behind highly-touted rookie QB Andrew Luck. All 4 major sportsbooks have the week 2 lines set with the Vikings winning by 3 points.


New Orleans Saints vs. Carolina Panthers

The Saints vs. Panthers matchup will start at 1:00 pm EST on FOX, with the Panthers hosting at Bank of America Stadium. This should be an offensive shootout loaded with scoring via Drew Brees to Darren Sproles and on the legs of Cam Newton. This looks to be a close matchup with the sportsbooks putting the spread at 3 or lower, and each with a different line. Check out our live NFL betting lines to pick the best sportsbook for you in week 2.


Houston Texans vs. Jacksonville Jaguars

The Texans vs. Jaguars matchup begins at 1:00 pm EST on CBS, with Jacksonville hosting Houston at EverBank Field. This AFC South division rivalry has the Jaguars trying to pick up their first win, while the Texans attempt to start the season on top 2-0. With Rashad Jennings out, Maurice Jones-Drew should get a full workload to keep fantasy football owners happy. Will it be enough against the Texans defense and the scary Schaub to Johnson combo? BetOnline and JustBet have the spread with the Texans winning by 7, while Bovada has them winning by 7.5, and 5Dimes keeping it closer with the Texans winning by 4. The Texans Jaguars week 2 lines are in the upper 200 to lower 300s, so there’s plenty of money to be won on this game.


Oakland Raiders vs. Miami Dolphins

The Raiders vs. Dolphins game starts at 1:00pm EST on CBS, with the Dolphins hosting the Raiders at Sun Life Stadium in Miami. This matchup features two teams searching for their first win in week 2. Can rookie QB Ryan Tannehil, whose wife is featured in our WAGs vs. Cheerleaders poll,  defeat Darren McFadden and the Raiders. The sportsbook spreads have this as a close game predicting the Raiders to win by 1, 2, or 3 points. Check out our live week 2 nfl betting lines to go with the spread that aligns with your own predictions for the week 2 Raiders Dolphins game.


Arizona Cardinals vs. New England Patriots

The Cardinals vs. Patriots matchup begins at 1:00pm EST at Gillette Stadium on FOX. This is the game to bet on if you want to win big money, or if you just want a safe bet. Tom Brady and the Pats are expected to destroy the Cardinals and their yearly QB woes. The closest Cardinals Patriots spread available is at 13.5 points. The week 2 NFL money line is massive at 5Dimes and JustBet with the NE Patriots at -800 for this potential blowout of a Patriots Cardinals game.


Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. New York Giants

The Buccaneers vs. Giants game starts at 1:00 pm EST at MetLife Stadium on FOX. The defending Super Bowl champion NY Giants look to rebound in week 2 after a loss to the Cowboys in week 1. The TB Bucs look to build on a week 1 victory with another in NFL’s week 2. Most Giants Buccaneers spreads have the Giants at -7, though some offer New York at -8. Let’s see if Eli can cover that spread for week 2 against Tampa.


Baltimore Ravens vs. Philadelphia Eagles

The Eagles vs. Ravens game gets started with a 1:00 pm kickoff time at Lincoln Financial Field in Philly, and can be watched on CBS. Both teams won in NFL’s week 1, but the Eagles didn’t exactly soar to victory over the lowly Browns.  Michael Vick will have his work cut out for him in week 2 vs. the Ravens defense, still anchored by Ray Lewis, especially if Jackson and Maclin are out. This Eagles Ravens game is one of the closest matchups of week 2, with two sportsbooks setting the spread with the Eagles at -1. Bovada has the Baltimore Ravens at +3 and the money line at -320. Betting on the Ravens Eagles game will be a tough call, but a fun game to watch!


Washington Redskins vs. St. Louis Rams

The Redskins vs. Rams matchup kicks off at 4:05 pm EST in St Louis at Edward Jones Dome, and can be seen on FOX. RG3 will be the man to watch in the week 2 Redskins Rams game. He hardly looked like a rookie in a week 2 win with 2 scores through the air. Alfred Morries emerged as coach Shanahan’s prime running back, but who knows if that’ll continue in week 2. With nothing much more than Stephen Jackson and Sam Bradford, the sportsbooks have the Rams Redskins spread with Washington at -3.5.


Dallas Cowboys vs. Seattle Seahawks

The Cowboys vs. Seahawks matchup begins at 4:05 in the afternoon on FOX at CenturyLink Field in Seattle. The Cowboys are still on a high after a week 1 victory over the defending champion NY Giants. The Seahawks didn’t fare as well and will look to rebound in NFL’s week 2 vs. Dallas. Can young Russell Wilson really beat the nasty Dallas defense? Should the Seahawks have kept T.O.? Ok, probably not, but the sportsbooks have this week 2 matchup closer than you might think. The spread has the Cowboys at -3 or -3.5 and the moneyline at -190 for the Cowboys. The Cowboys Seahawks game will be one of the better matchups this Sunday afternoon.


New York Jets vs. Pittsburgh Steelers

The Jets vs. Steelers game kicks off in the second half of Sunday action at 4:25pm at Heinz Field in Pitt and can be watched on CBS. The NY Jets won in week 1 while the Steelers lost and will look to come out firing against the Jets and their top NFL defense in week 2. However, according to ESPN, Revis may have to sit in week 2, which could open up the airways for big Ben Roethlisberger. Mark Sanchez will be hoping to prove week 1’s performance was no fluke. The NFL week 2 Jets Steelers spread has the Jets at +5 or 6. The money line for this Steelers Jets matchup is in the 200’s.


San Diego Chargers vs Tennessee Titans

The Chargers vs. Titans game starts late in the day at 4:25 pm EST at Qualcomm Stadium, and shows on CBS.  The Chargers won in week 1 despite a lackluster running game and will look to pick that up in week 2 vs. the Titans. Tennessee took a loss in week 1 and barely escaped an injury to young Jake Locker. Chris Johnson was terrible in last week’s game, which might be why the NFL spread in week 2 for the Titans Chargers game has San Diego at -7.


Detroit Lions vs. San Francisco 49ers

The Lions vs 49ers game kicks off at 8:20 pm EST on NBC as the Sunday night game at Candlestick Park. This Lions 49ers matchup will be one of the best games of week 2. Both teams were victorious in week 1 and NFL’s week 2 viewers are in for a treat as Stafford to Megatron will face off versus the Niners strong defense lead by intense coach Harbaugh. The 49ers vs Lions spread has the 49ers favored to win, with a -7 spread. With only 1 game on Sunday night, this exciting week 2 matchup is a must bet so check out the NFL betting lines before it’s too late!


Denver Broncos vs. Atlanta Falcons

The Broncos vs Falcons game kicks off at 8:30pm EST in the Georgia Dome for Monday Night football. The last matchup of week 2 pits the revived Peyton Manning in a shoot out vs Matt Ryan and the Falcons. The sportsbooks will have their hands full with any Monday night game and most of them have this week 2 Broncos Falcons spread with Atlanta at -3. The money line is only in the mid 100’s, but as usual this will be your last chance to take home a payday in NFL week 2.


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Kate Potter is a professional sports better and a semi-pro fantasy football player.

Fantasy Football Draft Day Advice

Don’t be a Draft Day Dope

Avoiding Draft Day Embarrassment

by: Carlos Bonier

 

            First things first – before you come in all juiced up, rocking your favorite jersey, carrying your briefcase full of cheat-sheets, rosters and your fantasy mag (we’ll get to that later) – you must pick a team name. I cannot stress the importance of this enough, whether it’s a live or online draft – YOU MUST PICK A TEAM NAME. Nothing emits the stench of weakness like Team TBA or Dave’s Team. You need to submit a team name that lets the rest of your league know you’re here to dominate, hard. The Mass Murderers, The Decapitators, or The Hacksaw Jim Duggan’s would all be good choices. You could also go the clever route and choose a name like Waistband Boner Tuck or Big TITanS to let your league know you aren’t just some dullard ready to get trampled. I can hear you people who like to name your team after a stud you drafted whining from way over here. Come in with a temporary team name, you can always change it to Big Swinging Vicks later. So that’s it. Just pick a killer team name and put the autopilot on “Steamroll to the ‘Ship.” Just kidding, although coming in with a boss team name gives you a monumental leg-up before the first player is even picked, believe it or not, that’s not enough to bring home the fantasy bacon (or turkey bacon for the Jewish readers). To give oneself the best chance of bringing home that savory pork (sorry Jews – something really good and kosher) we dream of all offseason, read the following advice and treat it like scripture.

Prep Work

          Walk or drive to your local CVS and purchase the fantasy mag with the freshest cover, promising the most content. Congratulations, you just took the first step towards BEING A BUM and going 0-14 (depending on playoff schedule). You’re a jabroni if you show up to your draft with a just a fantasy mag – don’t be like your Uncle Mike. We have this thing called the internet now, it contains the entire world’s knowledge and it’s up to date, use it. But I don’t wanna bring a laptop to the draft… waaaaa! Find a printer. It’s imperative to have the most up-to-date rosters, projected depth charts, injuries and perhaps even a summary of key off-season transactions. Did you remember that Brandon Marshall and Michael Bush are now Bears, Vincent Jackson a Buc and Brandon Llyod a Pat? If not, it’s probably a good idea for you to find a list of key offseason moves or, I guess… buy a mag that has such a list – if you are worried about paging through rosters or depth charts because you haven’t been paying attention this offseason. Often times, Rotoworld will publish a Free Draft Kit complete with this type of information. I would highly recommend bringing the entire kit to the draft.

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Know Your League’s Settings

          Duh, right? Wrong. You’d be surprised how times during a draft someone will ask, “How many WRs do we start? Is there one flex or two? Is our flex a WR/RB or WR/RB/TE? How many points per reception do we get? What!? This is a two QB league!?” Don’t be that guy. Know the rules, the scoring format, playoff format, when playoffs start, how waivers work, if players will be free agents or go on waivers after the draft, if there’s an individual defensive player(s) spot(s), and know whether there is a limit to the number of players you can draft at each position etc…

Have a plan a stick to it – Grabbing a Stud QB, Waiting because it’s a Deep Position and more…

                Have a plan a stick to it – for the most part. If you plan on taking a QB early, do it. The 3 top QBs in this year’s draft are really in a league of their own as far as big games (20+ points) and consistency goes. These three guys are Aaron Rodgers, Tom Brady and Drew Brees. Chances are you will be able to draft 1 of these 3 guys if you are dead set on grabbing a QB in the first round – people love drafting RBs in RD1. If you are in a 16-team league or drafting toward the bottom of a 12-team league and none of these guys are available, you might want to consider waiting until RDs 2 or 3 to grab Cam Newton or Matt Stafford. These 5 QBs are probably the only guys I would take before rounds 5 or 6 when you can get someone like Mike Vick, Big Ben, Romo, Rivers or one of the Mannings. I think if you can land one of the big 3 in RD 1, do it. Yes, the QB position is deep and the most consistent, but that means everyone will have decent QB play, BUT if you can have elite QB play you can give yourself a big leg-up on the competition.

The running back position is as shallow as it ever was. This might tempt you to take RBs with your first two picks. I do not think this is a good strategy anymore. What kind of RBs will be left in RD2? Chances are no one without injury, contract or platoon issues. Did you know that 42% of RBs and WRs that finish in the top 20 were NOT drafted in the top 20?  Also, 39 RBs had top 20 performances last year – 39!!. Fantasy football is a week-to-week game and there are very few matchup proof RBs anymore. In my opinion the only matchup proof RBs at this point in time are: Arian Foster, LeSean McCoy, Ray Rice and…. no one. That’s it. Other than those 3, every other RB in the NFL is either in a platoon or has some serious question marks. Adrian Peterson would obviously be on this list, but he is still recovery from the torn ACL he suffered last season. MJD would be on this list too, but he is currently a camp holdout and it’s unclear if he will play this season at all or be as sharp in the early going if he fails to report to camp. What about Fred Jackson? Injury concerns and CJ Spiller. Marshawn Lynch – arrested possible suspension. Mendenhall? Nope, Injured and the Steelers aren’t the pound the rock Steelers of yesteryear. Jamaal Charles – No. Chris Johnson – HA.  The list goes on and on. Frank Gore, Steven Jackson, Run DRC and Michael Turner would be solid 2nd round picks, but who knows how much these guys have left to give and if DRC can actually play 10+ games.

The WR position…. OH THE WR POSITION. This is the hardest position to predict. The only sure fire thing that one could say about this position is that Calvin Johnson is absolutely worthy of a 1st rd selection. He was one of 11 players to have 8 or more 20+ point games. The other players included 5 QBs (Rodgers, Brees, Brady, Newton and Stafford), 3 RBs (McCoy, Rice and Foster) and 2 TEs (Graham and the Gronk). I am not going to breakdown this position, just don’t reach on WRs. You can get good value in mid to late rounds at this position. This is the other position that is highly influenced by matchups. However, if you go in with the mantra that you want to have consistent WRs and not have to sweat it out week to week, take them early and make sure you grab a QB in the process. If you want to load up on WR talent, DO NOT go RB, WR, WR, RB. You will need a stud QB to make up for your inevitable whiff on one of these picks.

Hey, tight ends – this position is as deep as it ever was. Therefore, I think you should wait to draft one unless you are at the end of RD1 or top of RD2 and take one of Jimmy Graham or THE GRONK. These two guys are worthy of 1st round selections. In general your first 3 or 4 picks should be able to win weeks by themselves and these two guys certainly fit that bill, each scoring over 20 points in 8 plus games.

 

Closing Points

 

  • DON’T EVEN DRAFT A KICKER. Take another position player and pickup a kicker off of waivers before the season starts. Kickers are meaningless.
  • If you wait to take a QB, make sure you don’t wait too much longer to take a good backup. E.G. you take Romo in the 6th and Eli in the 8th rounds – nice job. You take Romo in the 6th and RG3 in the 15th… ugh.
  • Don’t reach on defenses, very few defenses are worthy of being selected before the last 3 rounds
  • Be active on the waiver wire, especially early in the season.
  • Be early to the draft; get acclimated to your surroundings.
  • Make sure you’re well fed; hunger can lead to brash and boneheaded decisions, but avoid a food coma.
  • Wear a Jersey to your draft. Just make sure it is an actual player jersey and doesn’t have your name on the back. You don’t play in the NFL.

 

Well that’s it folks, everything you need to know to not look like a fool on draft day. Reading this may not win you your league, but hey, you’ll look like you know what you’re doing. In today’s world that’s all that matters, right – appearances? Right.

 

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About Kate Potter

Kate Potter is a professional sports better and a semi-pro fantasy football player.

PROP-A-GANDA

PROP-A-GANDA

by

Prop Matt

 

Remember in Back to the Future II when Biff steals the DeLorean and travels back in time to give teenage Biff the sports almanac? That basically has the same effect as reading this article. No, not the butterfly effect! Just you winning lots of bets, getting paid, and getting laid!

Betting on games is exciting, but that’s too easy. What I’ll do here is break down a few prop bets that will leave your pockets full and have you rooting for players you never thought you would have otherwise. So without further ado, here’s the first edition of Prop-a-ganda.

 Blane Gabbert O/U 185.5 Total Passing Yards (Over, -115)

Since the start of the 2010 season, nine rookie quarterbacks have made starts in the NFL: Tebow, Clausen, McCoy, Skelton, Rusty Smith, Max Hall, Sam Bradford, Cam Newton and Andy Dalton. Of these nine QBs, only four have managed to surpass the 185.5 yard mark in their first start. However, the five that could not get past that 185 mark were Tebow, Clausen, Skelton, Rusty Smith and Max Hall. That’s not exactly the murderer’s row of arms. (Note: Dalton did no surpass the 185 yard mark in his first start, but he had to leave the game early with an injury. When he played the full game in Week 2 he easily eclipsed 185 yards). Also, the Jaguars are playing Carolina who has been torched in air in their first two games, giving up over 300 yards in each. Take that information along with the fact that Gabbert, albeit in garbage time, managed to go 5/6 for 52 yards in less than a quarter against the New York Football Jets, and you’ve got a nice little bet taking the Over for total Gabbert passing yards. That being said, if you refuse to bet on Blane Gabbert because his golden locks make him look fairly feminine, I won’t blame you.


 

Jay Cutler O/U 3.5 Sacks (Over, -150)

If you watched Chicago’s game last week, you’ll know that Cutler spent more time in the sand than David Hasselhoff. Wait, wrong reference. He spent more time in the grass than Bob Marley (or should I say Jerome Simpson). He was under enough pressure that he targeted Matt Forte 14 times. Guys, Matt Forte is a running back! He was dumping the ball off left and right. He was barely able to drop back three steps without having someone up in his face. At one point I felt bad for him, and it takes a lot for me to feel bad for Jay Cutler. Scott Hastings, the former Broncos radio color man went as far to call Cutler “an arrogant little punk” and “a little bitch” on a national show. But if you think that’s harsh, wait until you see what the Packers are going to do to Cutler in Week 3. The defending champion Pack was definitely watching that Bears game against the Saints last week and they have the defensive personnel to replicate that performance. I like Cutler over 3.5 sacks at -150.

 

Check back next week for more weekly player props and future team and player props. Keep it classy.

-Prop Matt

 

About Kate Potter

Kate Potter is a professional sports better and a semi-pro fantasy football player.

Fantasy Football Mania – Week 3

Fantasy Football Mania

Week 3 Fantasy Football Outlook for 5 BIG Games

By

Carlos Bonier

 

Welcome to the first addition of FANTASY MANIA. For the simple people who couldn’t tell by the title, the following will game-by-game rundown of what to expect this coming NFL Sunday for 5 of the bigger fantasy games. If you don’t take our advice, you’ll probably lose and regret it ALL shitty week long. We’ll do this first kickoff time to last. Let it begin!

 

1.) Texans @ Saints – 1:00pm

This game features two high-powered offenses and plenty of fantasy pop. The Texans are fairly obvious – you start Matt Schaub, Andre Johnson and Ben Tate (with Arian Foster on the shelf for a few weeks), but that’s about it, right? I say wrong for this game. I think in deeper and/or PPR league you consider Jacoby Jones and Owen Daniels – the Texans had huge leads early in their first two games which resulted in a heavy does of the Tate Train. Andre Johnson is almost certain to get his, but the Texans will have to throw often and Daniels and Jones should see increased production as a result.

The Saints, oh the Saints, everyone’s fantasy dream – a QB who throws it to anyone and everyone, and 3 decent backs splitting time. Start Drew Brees, duh. With Marques Colston out it is nearly impossible to predict whether Devery Henderson or Robert Meachem or both with have big games. Both are decent flex plays, but very risky. Honestly, if you have a more consistent option with a lower ceiling, like say go with the consistency. Meachem and Henderson have claimed many many victims over the years with their “upside”. Lance Moore is usually more reliable than his previously mentioned WR buddies and would be a good flex play in PPR leagues, but he was very quiet last week, being eased back into the offense after missing Week 1 with a hamstring injury. I stay away from him until his shows something. Start TE Jimmy Graham, that guy looks fucking good. If you have a stud TE in front of him sell his ass high. The RBs…. I wouldn’t start any of them except for Sproles at flex in a PPR league, unless you had Jamaal Charles and you’re desperate.

 

Sunday 1:00 – Houston Texans Vs. New Orleans Saints
Spread Moneyline Total Points
Houston Texans
New Orleans Saints
Houston Texans
New Orleans Saints
+4 -115
-4 -105
+175
-205
OV 53 -110
UN 53 -110
Houston Texans
New Orleans Saints
+4 -110
-4 -110
+175
-210
OV 53 -110
UN 53 -110
Houston Texans
New Orleans Saints
+4 -115
-4 -105
OV 53 -110
UN 53 -110

2.) NY Gaints @ Eagles – 1:00pm

The first of our 2 great rivalry games, this particular meeting may have some added spice after the Twitter battles that went on between these two NFL East foes this offseason.

From a fantasy perspective, this game doesn’t require the insight the previous one did. Mike Vick is expected to play so start him, along with Shady McCoy, Desean Jackson and Jeremy Maclin as you normally would. Steve Smith could be a savvy play if you’re desperate or in a deep PPR league. He might have an expanded role against his former team. Brent Celek had been the forgotten man much like he was last year. You’re just a homer fuck if you start him. Ahmad Bradshaw and Hakeem Nicks are must starts. The Eagles secondary is outstanding but Nicks has a history of coming up big against the birds. As long as he doesn’t draw Nnamdi every snap and we don’t think he will, start him.

Brandon Jacobs could and should have a large role in this Giants game plan this week, as the Eagles run defense is weak sauce. If you need and RB2 or flex play, you could do worse than Jacobs this week.  No word yet on whether Mario Manningham will play. He’s the only other Giant I would consider starting.

Sunday 1:00 – New York Giants Vs. Philadelphia Eagles
Spread Moneyline Total Points
New York Giants
Philadelphia Eagles
New York Giants
Philadelphia Eagles
OV 39.5 -110
UN 39.5 -110
New York Giants
Philadelphia Eagles
+10.5 -130
-10.5 +110
+320
-390
OV 39.5 -110
UN 39.5 -110
New York Giants
Philadelphia Eagles
+9 -115
-9 -105
OV 39.5 -110
UN 39.5 -110

3.) Jaguars @ Panthers – 1:00pm

Well MJD owners this is your week, enjoy it cause it ain’t gonna last. The Panther’s Defense is pretty horrendous and Jones-Drew should have a very nice day. After this week it’s back to 8 in the box and mediocrity. Mike Thomas is the only other Jaguar I consider starting in PPR or deep leagues. He’s been targeted over 16 times the first 2 games, I think a few more end up in his hands against this D.

Cam Newton – kid looks like a stud. I see this being another high scoring affair and would start Newton unless you have a studlier stud. I have no idea what the deal is with the Panthers run game. This could be the week it gets rolling.

Deangelo Williams isn’t a terrible flex play, but I would give him another week on the bench as an RB2 until he does something, anything. Same goes for Jonathan Stewart, he’s getting some touches, but stay away until Killer Cam cools down. Steve Smith should be very active again and Brandon Lafelle might be someone you start if you’re desperate or in a 24 team league.

 

Sunday 1:00 – Jacksonville Jaguars Vs. Carolina Panthers
Spread Moneyline Total Points
Jacksonville Jaguars
Carolina Panthers
+3.5 – 105
-3.5 -115
OV 43 -110
UN 43 -110
Jacksonville Jaguars
Carolina Panthers
+3.5 -115
-3.5 -105
+165
-190
OV 43 -110
UN 43 -110
Jacksonville Jaguars
Carolina Panthers
+3.5 -120
-3.5 +100
+165
-190
OV 43 -110
UN 43 -110
Jacksonville Jaguars
Carolina Panthers
+3½ -115
-3½ -105
OV 43 -110
UN 43 -110

Patriots @ Bills – 1:00pm

Tom Brady is ridiculous; he’s obviously going to have a big game in what will likely be a high scoring affair.

Likewise look for Wes Welker, Deion Branch and Rob Gronkowski to all have nice games, especially with Aaron Herdandez likely out. BJGE is a solid RB2 and high-end flex play this week in all formats. Danny FAKIN’ Woodhead is a decent flex play in PPR or deep leagues, but who knows with this guy, I wouldn’t start him.

Chad Ochocino, is this the week he is finally the focal point of the game plan, with Hernandez out? I doubt it. You simply can’t start 85 yet. He may assume a larger role in the offense eventually, but I don’t know about you, I want to see it first.

Ryan Fitzpatrick or Fitz 2.0, as I like to call him, is a very strong play this week and should be a top 10 QB. Stevie Johnson is a stud and after Vincent Jackson’s 3 TD 125+ yard day against the Pats least week, I would feel pretty good about starting him. It’s unlikely the Pats key in on anyone and shut them down completely like they did last week to Antonio Gates. I would start David Nelson this week over most in a PPR. He has one less target than Stevie J this year and should be in-line for a very nice game as this should be a high scoring affair. Fred Jackson looks like a stud and is leading a Bill’s rushing attack that is #1 in the NFL through 2 weeks, that’s right #1. You went to Clemson if you think starting CJ Spiller is a good idea. Though he could break one this week, do you really want to risk it, do you?

 

Sunday 1:00 – New England Patriots Vs. Buffalo Bills
Spread Moneyline Total Points
New England Patriots
Buffalo Bills
-9 -105
+9 -115
OV 54 -105
UN 54 -115
New England Patriots
Buffalo Bills
-9 +100
+9 -120
-405
+335
OV 53.5 -110
UN 53.5 -110
New England Patriots
Buffalo Bills
-9 +105
+9 -125
-380
+315
OV 53.5 -110
UN 53.5 -110
New England Patriots
Buffalo Bills
-8½ -110
+8½ -110
OV 53.5 -110
UN 53.5 -11

Packers @ Bears – 1:00pm

Nothing to do with fantasy, but this one just sounds great, doesn’t it? Packers, Bears… Ah, one of the great, storied rivalries.

However, from a fantasy stand point there are only 4 must starts between the two teams: Aaron Rodgers, Greg Jennings, Jermichael Finley and Matt “Drankin A” Forte.

I do like James Starks, a lot, and would start him as an RB2 in leagues you didn’t take a RB until the 6th round or as a flex. However, if you are deep at RB, I wouldn’t take count on Starks to put up huge numbers this week.

Hate Ryan Grant, his share of the carries is diminishing not so much because he looks terrible, but because Starks look much better. I would avoid Grant at all costs this week.

Jordy Nelson has been solid far, even with 1 catch last week, that catch went for an 84yd TD catch; however, I avoid him this week against a tough Bears D. I do like him going forward though.

Jay Cutler should have to throw early and often and unfortunately, most likely short shit to Matt Forte. Because he will probably put up in the area of 280-320 yds and 2 TDs, he’s not a bad play this week,  ONLY if INTs don’t kill you. I think this high-pressure GB D forces more than couple turnovers at the hands of Cutler – he is a fumbler as well. If you are deciding between the likes of Josh Freeman or Matt Ryan and Cutler, I go with the former two. If it’s between someone like Eli (decent #’s QB with a tough matchup) and Cutler – I go Cutler. Don’t you dare start any Bears WRs or TEs; the Cutlery simply does not get it to any one of these guys consistently.

 

Sunday 1:00 – Denver Broncos Vs. Tennessee Titans
Spread Moneyline Total Points
Denver Broncos
Tennessee Titans
Denver Broncos
Tennessee Titans
+7 -108
-7 -112
+275
-330
OV 42 -110
UN 42 -110
Denver Broncos
Tennessee Titans
+8 -130
-8 +110
+270
-330
OV 42 -110
UN 42 -110
Denver Broncos
Tennessee Titans
+7 -110
-7 -110
OV 42 -110
UN 42 -110

About Kate Potter

Kate Potter is a professional sports better and a semi-pro fantasy football player.

Week 3 NFL Betting Lines Guide Breakdown – 49ers Vs. Bengals

Week 3 NFL Betting Line Guide Breakdown – 49ers Vs. Bengals

One of the best NFL betting lines for week 3 is the Bengals at -2.5 or -3 agains the 49ers. A lot of action has been coming in on this NFL betting line so if you want to get money down on our pick (The Bengals), move fast and try and get it at -2.5 or -3 even.

 

Sunday 1:00 – San Francisco 49ers Vs. Cincinnati Bengals
Spread Moneyline Total Points
San Francisco 49ers
Cincinnati Bengals
+3 -130
-3 +110
OV 40.5 -110
UN 40.5 -110
San Francisco 49ers
Cincinnati Bengals
+3 -125
-3 +105
+125
-145
OV 40.5 -110
UN 40.5 -110
San Francisco 49ers
Cincinnati Bengals
+3 -125
-3 +105
+125
-145
OV 40.5 -110
UN 40.5 -110
San Francisco 49ers
Cincinnati Bengals
+2½ -105
-2½ -115
OV 40.5 -110
UN 40.5 -110

SAN FRANCISCO OFFENSE:   The 49ers got off to a good start by not giving up a single sack against the Seahawks but lets be honest, that’s not saying much. In their week 2 match up against Dallas, Alex Smith was brought down six times. The Cowboys have a fierce pass rush, but Cincinnati’s racked up five sacks so far including three against Denver. Although their O-line overall is pretty shabby, right tackle Anthony Davis sticks out as a particularly weak spot. Alex Smith just doesn’t have the goods and with his weak line protection and Cincinnati’s fairly strong secondary, I think it’s going to be a long game for Smith.

That leaves the running game and so far Frank Gore is only averaging 2.5 YPC this year. After seeing Cincinnati’s run defense shut down Peyton Hillis two weeks ago I am confident they’ll be able to keep Gore under control.

CINCINNATI OFFENSE: While Andy Dalton is a rookie I think he is the better of the two signal-callers in this match-up. Against Denver, he 27-of-41 for 332 yards, two touchdowns and no picks. Keep in mind that the Bronco defense was missing Champ Bailey and Elvis Dumervil but even still the 49ers secondary isn’t any better. The 49ers defense does have one thing going for them though and that’s their ability to stop the run. In the two games this season their opposing YPC is the lowest in the league. They haven’t faced a great back yet though so take that for what it’s worth.

Where the Niners do shine is stopping the run. They are first in terms of opposing YPC, though it should be noted that they haven’t really been tested yet. Marshawn Lynch has no blocking, while Felix Jones was hurt for half of last week’s game.

 

Why I like the Bengals NFL Betting Line as a slight favorite:

 

  •  I think the Bengals are underrated. They have a good running game and defense.  Dalton has potential and is playing at home. A.J. Green is a beast, and Jerome Simpson and Jermaine Gresham complement him well.
  •  Coming off an emotional loss against the Cowboys will be extremely difficult for the 49ers. San Francisco had a win locked up, leading 24-14 in the fourth quarter. Unfortunately for them, Dallas came back with a hobbled Tony Romo and won in overtime. The Niners definitely won’t be psychologically prepared for this contest.
  •  West Coast teams are 24-42 against the spread in 1 p.m. East Coast games coming off a home game (meaning they didn’t travel the week before). When you compound that with the emotional defeat to Dallas and I think it’s going to have some major ware and tare on the 49ers
  • If you can lock in this bet at -2.5 or 3 with a even or +105 (meaning if it’s a push we lose no money or earn 5%) then we’re getting great line value with Cincinnati. This spread should be -3, but because San Francisco played Dallas well, the line is at a field goal or less. The books seems to have forgotten that the 49ers may have lost to the Seahawks in Week 1 if it weren’t for Ted Ginn.

 

What other NFL Betting line would you like to see us break down for week 3? Remember to check out our sportsbook reviews HERE for all the information on the best deposit and sign-up bonuses.

 

About Kate Potter

Kate Potter is a professional sports better and a semi-pro fantasy football player.

Week 2 NFL Betting Lines Breakdown – Chicao Bears Vs. New Orleans Saints

Week 2 NFL Betting Lines Breakdown:

Chicao Bears Vs. New Orleans Saints

 

With week 1 of the 2011 NFL season in the books we have a much better sense of where many teams stand. While some questions remain unanswered, the fog of the lockout is starting to lift.

Let’s take a look at the first tilt on the schedule, the Bears vs. Saints game

Chicago Bears (1-0 SU, 1-0 ATS) vs. New Orleans Saints (0-1 SU, 0-1 ATS), 1:00 p.m. EST, Week 2 NFL, Sunday, September 18, 2011, Louisiana Superdome, New Orleans, La., TV: FOX

NFL Betting Lines

Sunday 1:00 – Chicago Bears Vs. New Orleans Saints
Spread Moneyline Total Points
Chicago Bears
New Orleans Saints
+7 -120
-7 Even
OV 47-110
UN 47 -110
Chicago Bears
New Orleans Saints
+6.5 -110
-6.5 -110
+250
-300
OV 47-110
UN 47 -110
Chicago Bears
New Orleans Saints
+7 -125
-7 +105
+255
-310
OV 47-110
UN 47 -110
Chicago Bears
New Orleans Saints
+6½ -110
-6½ -110
OV 47-110
UN 47 -110

The Chicago Bears desperately want to keep the momentum from their season opening victory going when they head down to the Big Easy of New Orleans to take on the New Orleans Saints in the Superdome in a week two NFC clash.

Week 1 was an impressive one for the Bears as they ended up with a decisive victory, 30-12, over the Atlanta Falcons. Their defense was able to force three turnovers with one being returned for a TD. Cutler racked up 312 yard with two TD’s making it an all around strong performance from Da’ Bears.

The saints on the other hand had a disappointing loss to the Packers in the 2011 season opener. Although they gave up 42 points their offense still looked strong with a total of 477 yards and they even came close to tying it up at the end of the game. The Saints team is still a force to be reckoned with but this loss could leave some lingering damage on their confidence.

The Saints are coming in on most NFL Betting lines as a -6.5 or -7 favorite. This points to oddsmakers disbelief in The Bears ability to bring the goods all season especially when the Saints are at home. I think the Bears will feed off this “disrespect” and use it to their advantage just like they did last week against the Falcons.

The NFL betting line for the over/under is pretty steady at 47 and we shouldn’t see much movement on that throughout the week.

We saw high scores from both offenses last week with 34- and 30-point outputs in their 2011 debuts, but while the Saints and quarterback Drew Brees are expected to reach that level on a weekly basis the Bears and Cutler are not.

Against the Bears the Saints will need to establish a better running game than they did in the opener against the Packers (81 yards, 3.8 ypc), especially in short-yardage situations. If they don’t the Bears will just sit back in that cover-2 shell on defense and make Brees dink-n-dunk his way down the field, something Brees has proven he’s capable of doing to carry his team, but something you don’t want to have to do every week if you can help it.

If Urlacher is out (personal issues is the rumor) then the Saints should focus on developing and sustaining a run attack. The Falcons had success with over 100 yards on the bears in rushing offense but abandoned it when they fell behind in the 2nd half.

The Bears offense was good enough in the opener, but it’s no secret that the team feeds off its defense. With the young o-line the Bears are still finding their way in the running game (88 yards, 3.2 ypc in opener), the Bears will rely on field position and turnovers more than ever before under Lovie Smith on offense this season.

Another key to this game is how well Cutler and new center Groberto Garza do against the Saints blitz schemes and adjustments. Once the Saints adjusted last week they were able to get to Rodgers in the 2nd half so it’s likely with the inexperience of the Bears O-Line that Cutler will have to get the ball off quick.

Historically speaking, the Bears have trounced the Saints consistently since 2005 winning all four meetings.

Chicago does have a few strong betting trends in their favor, including a 4-1 ATS mark in their last five against an NFC opponent and a 4-1 ATS mark as a road underdog in their last five trips. The Saints don’t play all that well as the chalk either, going 1-4 ATS in their last five as favorites.

Conclusion on Chicago Bears Vs. New Orleans Saints NFL Betting Lines:

Too many factors favor the Bears if you can lock them in as +7 underdogs. Later in the season it might be a different story but right now the way the NFL betting lines look, the Bears have momentum and history on their side and their defense is so good at keeping it close that this is a solid bet.

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About Kate Potter

Kate Potter is a professional sports better and a semi-pro fantasy football player.

Sports Betting 102: Fancy Bets

Over/Under & Parlay Bets

 

The point spread and the moneyline are the meat and potatoes of sports betting but they are far from the only bets you can make. Here we’ll go over some of the other most popular bets and some basic strategy.

 

Totals or Over/Under:

Many sports bettors believe betting on overs/unders is easier than trying to predict the winner of a game and bookmakers tend to agree with that fact by placing smaller betting limits on overs/unders than they do when betting a team, either against the point spread or on the money line.

Overs/unders, more commonly referred to as totals, are a type of betting where you may bet that the final score of a game is either over or under  the bookmaker’s posted total  The total is determined by adding the final score of both teams. It’s that simple.

Imagine the New York Jets are playing the Miami Dolphins and the posted total is 40. If you bet over on the game, you win your bet if the two teams combine for more than 40 points. If the Dolphins win 24-17, for example, you have made a winning bet. If the Dolphins were to win 24-14, you would lose the over bet, as the final combined score was just 38. If the final score added up to 40, the bet would be considered a push, or a tie, and your money is returned to you.

Football and Basketball Totals

When betting on football and basketball totals, the bettor risks $11 to win $10, just as they do when making a bet against the point spread. If the bookmaker can get an equal amount of money wagered on the over and the under, he is guaranteed to make money no matter what the final score is.

Most NFL football totals will range between 32 and 52, with an average number right around 41 points. If two high scoring teams with poor defenses are playing each other, the total may be posted higher.On rare occasions, two sound defensive teams playing in poor, cold weather, may see the total dip below 32, but this doesn’t happen too often.

College football totals may be even higher, as some teams have great offenses and equally poor defenses. College football totals have been known to reach into the 70-point range.

When a bookmaker accepts a maximum bet on a football total, they will typically adjust the line by .5 points in an effort to attract money bet the other way, although this is at the discretion of the individual bookmaker. They may move the line a full point or they may not move it at all.

 

Parlay Bets:

Parlays are by far the most popular of the exotic wagers, as they offer the potential for a big payoff from a small wager. Simply stated, a parlay is a collection of two or more teams that you place a wager on and all of them must win in order for you to win your bet. If you place a four team parlay, going 3-1 is no different than going 0-4. All of your bets must win, or at least tie, for you to win.

There are basic types of parlays, those wagered against the point spread and those wagered against the money line. The payoffs a bettor will receive should they win are quite different in the two. In parlays involving point spreads, the payoff are fixed, while money line parlay payoffs are determined by the odds of each team.

Point Spread Parlays

The odds on a typical parlay involving point spreads, including totals, are generally something like:

2 teams 13-5
3 teams 6-1
4 teams 10-1
5 teams 25-1
6 teams 40-1
7 teams 75-1
8 teams 150-1
9 teams 300-1
10 teams 600-1

What this means is that a bettor making a wager on a five-team parlay stands to win $25 for every $1 if all of the games win. That is the primary reason parlays are popular with a number of sports bettors.

Money Line Parlays

Money line parlays do not use fixed odds, because the odds of winning vary greatly from team to team. While a parlay made against the point spread assumes a 50-50 chance for each team of winning, money line parlays do not. The chances of the New York Yankees defeating Kansas City are greater than 50-percent, and as a result, money line parlays are figured differently.

To put it in simple terms, money line parlays take the amount of your bet and place all of the money on one team and if that team wins,recalculates your bet amount on the next team, again placing your entire wager on that team.

For example, say a bettor likes the Los Angeles Dodgers +160 and the Chicago Cubs -130. If the bettor places a $10 wager, they essentially would have a $10 bet on the Dodgers +160, which will return $26 should the Dodgers win, and then would have $26 on the Cubs -130. Should the Cubs also win, the bettor has turned a $10 wager into $46. Contrast the $36 profit with the $26 profit a bettor winning a $10 point spread parlay on two teams would make. The difference in the payoff is because the Dodgers were not given very good odds of winning.

Are Parlays Good Bets?

The simple answer is no, especially parlays involving point spreads or totals. The odds of the payoff are much less than the true odds. For example, the true odds of winning a three-team parlay when making point spread wagers are 7-1, while the payoff is only 6-1, and it gets worse as you bet more teams. The true odds of hitting a 10-team point parlay are 1,023-1, while the payoff is generally around 600-1, so a parlay bettor is at a big disadvantage. Bettors should stick with straight bets, as it’s difficult enough to pick one winner, let alone two or more games.

 

Teaser Bets:

Teasers are bets that are offered in football and basketball betting, which are quite similar to parlays, in that all of the teams selected must win in order for a bettor to win their wager. A single loss on any one game makes the entire bet a losing one.

There is one major difference between teasers and parlays, however, and that is the bettor is allowed to move the point spread in any direction they like on a particular game. For example, if the Bears are favored by 10 points over the Dolphins, teaser bettors would have the option of moving the point spread in either direction, and could make the new point spreads for the teaser bet the Bears -4 or the Dolphins 16.

In football, bettors can move the line 6, 6.5, 7, or sometimes 10 points, but the payoffs are lower with each additional half-point the bettor takes. A 7-point teaser will pay lower odds than a 6-point teaser, for example.

In basketball teasers, point spreads can be moved 4, 4.5, or 5 points. Teasers must be a minimum of two teams and can use as many as 10 teams, depending on the sportsbook the wager is placed through, although most placed tend to limit the number to six.

Ties count as a loss at most sportsbooks, although some will reduce the number of teams in the teaser by one. It’s best to check with the individual sportsbook before placing a wager to make sure you know its rules.

Football Teasers

In exchange for the points allowed by teasers, bettors take much lower odds than they would if wagering on a parlay. While a three team parlay will pay 6-1, a three team, 6-point teaser pays 9-5.

The typical odds for football teasers are as follows:

6-point Teasers:
Two teams = 10/11
Three teams = 9/5
Four teams = 3/1
Five teams = 9/2
Six teams = 6/1

6.5-point Teasers:
Two teams = 10/12
Three teams = 8/5
Four teams = 5/2
Five teams = 4/1
Six teams = 11/2

7-point Teasers:
Two teams = 10/13
Three teams = 7/5
Four teams = 2/1
Five teams = 7/2
Six teams = 5/1

Some sportsbooks will offer three-team, 10-point teasers at odds of 10-13 (risk $13 to win $10), although not all sportsbooks offer them.

About Kate Potter

Kate Potter is a professional sports better and a semi-pro fantasy football player.