Prop-A-Ganda Week 5

PROP-A-GANDA: Week 5

by Prop Matt

I am an eternal optimist. I always look at the glass half full, I always think that this is the year that the Pittsburgh Pirates will have a winning season and I love better the overs. Here’s the great thing about overs: once you hit your mark, you don’t have to worry about it anymore. Let’s say you took my advice last week and bet the over for Legarette Blount for rushing yards. There’s a chance that he could surpass that mark early in the third quarter and not have to worry about it anymore. If you bet the under, you’re sitting on pins and needles the whole game just hoping that he doesn’t break that long one. It’s like going in for an interview and halfway through the damn thing they offer you the job. You don’t have to sit around for the next few days sweating it out. So this issue of Prop-a-ganda will be all about overs and optimism (cue Polyphonic Spree music now… http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rHJo_klmPcA).

First let’s recap last week…

Bet Odds Amount Bet W/L W/L Amount
Bills Total Points O/U 24 Over -115 100 L -100
Legarette Blount Rushing Yards O/U 76.5 Over -115 115 W 100
TOTAL 0
Pending Bet Odds Amount Bet
AFC East Division Champion – Bills 300 100
AFC East Division Champion – Jets 300 100

 

Beginning Balance 1000
Balance Pending 200
Ending Balance 800

 

Jets Total Points O/U 20.5 (Over -115)

Source: Sportsbook.com

Bet: 115 Units

There’s only so much that the Patriots can hide behind Tom Brady’s schoolgirl smile, his butt chin and his flowing locks (RIP). The fact that the Patriots defense is not very good and has a ton of holes is not one of those things. Somewhere in the past few years Bill Belichick forgot what defense was. My guess is that it happened sometime during the Patriots magical (almost) undefeated 2007 season. Here’s how I bet it all went down:

Alien overlord 1: Look how all those TDs just drive the crowds wild.

Alien overlord 2: You can say that again. It makes the women horny and the men drunk with power.

Alien overlord 1: We need to immediately change the settings on robot Bill Belichick to “offense only”.

Alien overlord 2: Holy hell I love horny women.

Alright, so it probably didn’t go exactly like that, but it has to be pretty damn close. The point is, this Pats defense is not great and so far they only held one of their first opponents to under 21 points. In their first three games they gave up 24, 21 and 34 points to the Dolphins, Chargers and Bills respectively. I think that the Patriots will come out and try to control the tempo and run the ball more than they have, but when they find that to be unsuccessful against the Jets run defense (although not as tough as they’ve been in the past) they will take to the air. I can see this game turning into a shootout. Brady is fifth in pass attempts so far and Sanchez is tenth, so neither team is afraid to air it out. I could also see the Jets coming up with a defensive TD or a return TD, and that would put them in great shape to cover the over. Don’t be afraid to bet against the Patriots. Tom Brady is not a god, and probably doesn’t even have God on his side (he had a child out of wedlock!).

Bears vs Lions – Team to score first (Bears +125)

Source: Sportsbook.com

Bet: 100 Units

The Lions are good. They are very good. They finally shored up their defense and if Stafford and Megatron can stay healthy, their offense is going to be top notch. This is a team that is going to score points and going to win games this year. Here’s the thing, they LOVE the underdog mentality. They thrive off of it. They are exactly what makes Detroit what it is: hardworking, gritty and blue-collar. So while this is a good team, they have been behind and been scored on first in the majority of their games this season. So far the Lions have played Dallas, Minnesota, Kansas City and Tampa Bay. And while they’ve won all four games, they been scored on first twice (vs. Dallas and vs. Minnesota) and have been behind at half in three of those games (the only game that they’ve led at halftime was against KC, and they’re not even a real football team). It’s like they are the living, breathing Hickory basketball team from the movie Hoosiers. This game is going to be like the state championship game when Hickory faces a taller and more athletic South Bend team, gets behind, and then roars back to win. Bears will get up early and score first, but the Lions will continue to be the cardiac kids and put up points late in the game.

NFL MVP – Calvin Johnson +800

Source: Sportsbook.com

Bet: 50 Units

Did you know that a Wide Receiver has never been named the Associated Press MVP of the NFL? And on top of that, only Jerry Rice’s 1987 season has gained those accolades for a WR in the other polls. Normally when a receiver has an amazing year, the quarterback gets named the MVP (see Tom Brady/Randy Moss 2007). That being said, have you seen Calvin Johnson this year? He has scored two TDs in each of his first four games. He is on a ridiculous pace for catches, yards and especially TDs. And while Matthew Stafford is having a very good year so far, if it weren’t for Calvin Johnson he would be having a decent season at best. Stafford is like Pippen and Calvin Johnson like Jordan. Pippen was a great player, probably top-50 all time, maybe even better, but he played second fiddle to Jordan, and probably would not have been as great without him. Anyways, if the Lions keep winning and Johnson and Stafford stay healthy, I think that Johnson could win the MVP award, and getting this at +800 is a steal.

As always, stay classy.

About Kate Potter

Kate Potter is a professional sports better and a semi-pro fantasy football player.

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